Silver coins and bullion – Photo: Aleksandar Mijatovic / Shutterstock.com

    The price of  silver  has been hammered in recent weeks – after reaching a two-year low and falling by about 40% from highs in February 2021, the commodity is attempting to stabilise around the psychological threshold of $19 per troy ounce.

    Precious metals markets have come under pressure from strength in the US dollar, with the Dollar Index ( DXY ) climbing to a 20-year high of 108.54 on 14 July 2022. Silver has underperformed gold as investment interest has waned. 

    What are the factors weighing on the silver market and where should investors expect the market to move next? 

    In this article, we look at some of the latest silver predictions from analysts.

    Silver price history: macro volatility is key

    The silver markets have climbed from the $18 per ounce level since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, as investors have bought physical precious metals and financial instruments as safe-haven assets during ongoing economic uncertainty.

    The silver price jumped to an eight-year high in February 2021, briefly touching the $30 per ounce psychological level, as the market attracted the attention of retail investors. 

    In addition to investor sentiment, the silver price trend has found support from its growing use in industrial settings, which account for around half of the metal’s annual demand.

    Physical silver demand climbed to a record high in 2021, led by an all-time high in industrial applications – where consumption rose by 9% to 508.2 million ounces, according to the Silver Institute . 

    There were several trends driving up silver demand, including strong consumer electronics demand amid the transition to remote working, investment in 5G infrastructure and rising silver use in the green economy, especially in solar photovoltaic (PV) panels. Physical demand is expected to rise by 5% to another record in 2022.

    Sales of silver coins and bars for investment jumped by 36% to 278.7 million ounces, the highest level since 2015, “as retail investors in North America and Europe, motivated by safe-haven and inflationary concerns, took advantage of periodically lower silver prices to purchase coins and bars”, the Silver Institute said. The market saw its first deficit since 2015, with a shortage of 51.8 million ounces, the biggest shortage since 2010.

    High inflation rates around the world were expected to support investment demand in 2022, as precious metals typically retain their value at times when rising prices erode the purchasing power of fiat currencies. But the silver spot price has fallen from $23-24 per ounce since the start of the year, as central banks are combatting inflation by rapidly raising interest rates. Higher interest rates tend to be bearish for precious metals, as investors opt for interest-bearing savings accounts and other assets that generate guaranteed returns.

    Silver traded up from $22.30 per ounce in late January to $26.90 per ounce in early March, a peak so far this year, as the market responded to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But while the market traded between $24-26 until mid-April, it began to sell off sharply later in the month as the dollar strengthened. The DXY reached 105.52 on 14 June, its highest level since December 2002, which saw the silver trading price drop to $20.936 per ounce.

    The price bounced back to $21.867 in the following two days but has since been on a sharp decline, closely following the trajectory of the  gold price .

    After falling sharply on 14 July following the release of US Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data, silver closed the week down 3.3% on 15 July at $18.66/oz. US inflation in June soared to 9.1% year-on-year – above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate – “the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 1981”, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics .

    The continuous futures contract for silver was hovering around the $18.80 mark on 19 July 2022.

    What is the potential for the price of silver in the future? Below, we look at some of the latest analyst projections.

    Analyst outlook: What’s next for silver?

    Analysts remain cautious on the silver outlook with the price having broken the key $20 per ounce level and interest rates rising. 

    “The Federal Reserve’s slow reaction to rising inflation has allowed the CPI to rise to 9.1% year-on-year in June, up for another consecutive month and now the highest since November 1981. In the lead-up to the release of this data, expectation for a repeat 75 bp interest rate hike at the end of the month was near to 100%. The market expectation is now 80% in favour of a 100 bp hike over 75 bp on 27 July,” analysts at German-based firm Heraeus wrote in their latest Precious Metals Appraisal on 18 July.

    “High polysilicon prices may delay large solar projects, temporarily slowing silver PV demand. Polysilicon is an essential component of photovoltaic (PV) cells and is used for cell wafer production. Polysilicon prices have surged in recent weeks to the highest level since 2011, after growing by 288% in 2020-2021. This has been compounded by five factories shutting for planned maintenance this summer in addition to one impacted by fire, on top of continuing Covid and supply chain delays. A drop in the overall prices of solar cells has led to an increase in uptake over the last 10-15 years.”

    Heraeus continued to forecast an easing of market tightness, stating that silver demand could likely increase, following an uptick in polysilicon production — a key component of photovoltaic cells used for harvesting solar energy.

    In addition, a surge in countries’ green energy goals in the last 24 months has resulted in demand for polysilicon rising faster than production can be expanded. Increasing raw material prices are being pushed onto consumers and are likely to impact PV demand as large projects may be delayed to ride out the price spike. This could negatively impact demand in the short term for silver paste used in the cells. PV applications accounted for 114 moz of silver in 2021 – around 10% of global silver demand. New polysilicon production capacity, due to come online later in Q3, will help to ease the market tightness, allowing PV production to meet additional demand. Installed capacity growth rate was 19% in 2021 and is likely to continue at a similar pace, while PV silver demand is also forecast to increase,” Heraeus noted.

    The rise in silver demand from the solar PV sector could receive a boost over the coming years that could support the silver value in the future. 

    In May, the European Commission president announced a mandate for rooftop solar panels on public and commercial buildings to be installed in the next five years. The aim is to boost the target for European Union solar capacity by 10% over base-case projections.

    “The aim of the mandate is to help the region fulfil its new ambition to become independent of Russian fossil fuels as soon as possible. It could also boost silver requirements for fabrication of photovoltaic (PV) panels, which are primarily imported from China,” analysts at Heraeus Precious Metals noted in their May appraisal.

    “Global PV demand (127 moz) is forecast to be 12% of total silver demand in 2022. Despite metal thrifting which has already reduced silver content in PV cells by 80% in the last decade, demand is set to grow over the next five years. After falling below a support level at $22/oz, silver has followed gold higher but could not return to that level.”

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    Demand for silver in the manufacture of electric vehicles is also set to rise to 70 million ounces in 2030, up from roughly 45 million ounces in 2017, according to the Silver Institute.

    On 29 June, Capital.com Chief Market Strategist David Jones identified the following key support and resistance levels for the silver price :

    Resistance

    $26.95 (8 March High) $23.30 (5 May High) $22.50 (6 June High)

    Support

    $20.40 (2022 Low) $20.00 (Psychological) $17.00 (June 2020 Low)

    Jones is yet to issue a new forecast and update the figures listed in the July analysis.

    Capital.com analyst Piero Cingari opined  in an analysis on 13 July that silver’s bearish trend was closely tied to the performance of gold, with a potential reversal conditional on a less hawkish Federal Reserve:

    “For silver’s major bearish trend to end,  gold  prices must also invert their course, since the two precious metals have moved in tandem ever since the conflict in Ukraine broke out.

    “The 90-day rolling correlation coefficient between silver and gold is presently at 0.98, the strongest link between these two commodities in the recent past, as showed in the chart below.”

    Gold and silver moved hand-in-hand since the Ukraine war (Photo: Capital.com, Source: TradingView)

    “The high correlation renders silver susceptible to factors weighing on gold prices, especially the strengthening US currency and rising US real rates,” Cingari added.

    “The fundamental catalyst that might herald a decisive reversal of gold’s and, by implication, silver’s bearish trend, is a rethinking by the Federal Reserve of its aggressive interest rate hikes. This can only happen if the Fed shifts its focus from inflation to the growing chances that the US economy is entering a recession,” Cingari concluded.

    Silver price forecast for 2022 and beyond

    “Geopolitical and economic issues, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, multi-decade-high inflation, lower global growth projections, and increasing interest rates, present challenges to forecasting precious metals this year,” the Silver Institute noted in April.

    Scotiabank’s silver price prediction for 2022, issued on 1 February, is an average price of $24.50 per ounce. While the bank is yet to update its forecast for the metal, its analysts are closely watching the silver price dynamics.

    Influenced by the same forces as gold, silver is also a key input into a range of industrial sector applications and was surely weighed down by expectations of slowing global growth,” Marc Desormeaux, senior economist at Scotiabank, wrote in a commodity note on May 31, 2022.

    The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook in April 2022 saw the silver price averaging $24.2 in 2022. The bank’s silver price forecast for 2025 saw the precious metal averaging $22.5 throughout the year, and continuing to fall to an average of $21 in 2024.

    According to TradingEconomics’ global macro models and analysts’ expectations, “silver is expected to trade at $18.33/oz by the end of this quarter”. The website expects the commodity to trade at $17.30 in 12 months’ time.

    While analysts are typically cautious in issuing long-term forecasts for commodities, algorithm-based forecasting services regularly provide price outlooks for larger periods.

    WalletInvestor’s silver price forecast for 2022 is bullish – the website sees the precious metal closing the year at the $20.155 mark. The platform’s prediction for 2025 sees silver growing even further, to an average price of $29.059 by the end of that year.

    Gov.capital , another algorithm-based forecasting service, issued a silver price prediction stating that the metal would close out 2022 at a potential average of $20.601. The platform sees silver rising to an average of $34.833 by the end of December 2023, $50.904 by December 2024, and $73.486 by December 2025.

    No analyst or forecasting service provided a silver price forecast for 2030.

    When considering silver price predictions, it’s important to keep in mind that high market volatility makes it difficult to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts can and do get their predictions wrong. 

    FAQs

    Is silver a good investment?

    Whether silver is a suitable investment for you depends on your risk tolerance, market outlook and whether you expect it to rebound or fall further, among other factors. 

    We recommend that you always do your own research, and consider the latest silver price news, market trends, technical and fundamental analysis, and expert opinion before making any investment decision. Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future returns. And never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

    Should I invest in silver?

    That depends on your view of the commodity. You will need to draw your own conclusions on how silver is likely to perform over the coming years. Keep in mind that past performance doesn’t guarantee future returns. And never invest or trade money you cannot afford to lose.

    Will silver prices go up or down in 2022?

    At the time of writing, analysts were cautious about the outlook for silver prices in 2022, as the price could come under pressure in the second half of 2022 as central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, raise interest rates.

    Keep in mind that analysts can and do get their predictions wrong. You should do your own research to make informed trading decisions. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

    Further reading:

    What are silver prices going to do in 2022?
    My silver price target for year-end in 2022 is $21 per troy ounce. That's slightly below the current price (about 1 percent lower), and well off of silver's previous high for the year. more
    Does Walmart Canada price match 2022?
    Yes, we do price match in store prices with Walmart.ca. more
    Will Ethereum price go up in 2022?
    Ethereum Price Prediction 2022: Ethereum continues to trend lower and has now broken vital support at $1000. After a six-month selloff, Ethereum and the broader cryptocurrency market could be close to the bottom. If there is a rebound as investors buy the dip, the chances are that Ethereum could end the year at $1500. more
    What will silver prices be in 2022?
    My silver price target for year-end in 2022 is $21 per troy ounce. That's slightly below the current price (about 1 percent lower), and well off of silver's previous high for the year. more
    What price will XRP reach in 2022?
    XRP Price Prediction: 2022-2030 Year Minimum Price Maximum price 2022 $0.30 $0.44 2023 $0.42 $0.51 2024 $0.45 $0.50 2025 $0.53 $0.68 more
    Should I offer asking price 2022?
    Experts recommend offering at least 1% to 3% above the asking price when you're in a bidding war. In fact, in early 2022, the average home sold for just 1.3% above its list price. Of course, you could end up offering a lot more than that in an ultra-hot market. more
    What is the price on silver?
    Live Silver Price more
    What is today's price of silver?
    MONEX Live Silver Spot Prices more
    What will the price of silver be in 2022?
    The forecasted Silver price at the end of 2022 is $29.15 - and the year to year change +25%. The rise from today to year-end: +17%. In the middle of 2022, we expect to see $27.78 per 1 Silver. more
    Why is silver 2022 Cheap?
    Mostly because of the existing supply. There is still a considerable amount of silver to be mined and also from scrap metal. more
    Will Cardano price Increase in 2022?
    According to the technical analysis of Cardano prices expected in 2022, the minimum cost of Cardano will be $0.59. The maximum level that the ADA price can reach is $0.70. The average trading price is expected around $0.61. more

    Source: capital.com

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